Wednesday Service Play Thread 07/21/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

Stephen Oh

N.Y. METS @ CINCINNATI | 07/21 | 12:35 PM EDT
UNDER 10.5
ANALYSIS: Should be an edge for the pitchers with the shadows and the quick turnaround for this getaway Wednesday game. Mets starter Marcus Stroman has a 2.79 ERA on the season and has not allowed more than three earned runs in an outing since mid-May. Around 65 percent of my model simulations land Under this big total of 10.5 runs.

 

[sailfish]

The Prez

D% - Brewers Runline

 

[sailfish]

bet-my-ticket

PSV – Galatasaray : Over 1,5 @ 1.25
Cukaricki – Sumqayit : Over 1,5 @ 1.25
Palmeiras – U. Catolica : Over 1,5 @ 1.30

Total Odds : 2.02

 

[sailfish]

MLB-Martingale

B units

Detroit Tigers – Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers -1 @ 2.30

 

[BuzzKill]

Jesse Schule

Schule's MLB AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER - **EARLY START**
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 21 2021 12:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -165 K Akin (LHP), M Wacha (RHP) Must Start
This is a 5* play on Tampa.
The Rays have split the first two games of this home series versus the Orioles, but I like their chances in the rubber match this afternoon.
Michael Wacha will toe the rubber for the Rays, and he\'s been quite effective at home. He\'s 1-0 with a 3.90 ERA in seven appearances in Tampa this season.
The Orioles hand the ball to Keegan Akin, who has really been lit up lately. Akin (0-5, 8.19 ERA) has an ERA of 12.05 in his last five appearances.
The Orioles are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings.

 

[FreeKick]

Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)

Real Potosi - CA Palmaflor
Bolivia, Primera Division, 00:15 CET (Jul 22) / 6:15 PM ET
1.2 Units: Real Potosi -0.25 -119

 

[Rodney1974]

Wise guy team
Brewers RL
Cardinals ML

 

[Rodney1974]

Wise guy team
Brewers RL
Cardinals ML

 

[TheCapt]

Docs cappers? Root? TIA!

 

[BuzzKill]

The Whale

Below are The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll. If you prefer to bet on only 1 or a few games a day, then just take the picks with the highest win amounts:

Platinum to win $100
910am 964 Tampa Bay -227
1110am 974 Brewers -175
510pm 1970 Astros first 5 innings

Gold to win $80

910am 964 Tampa Bay run line -1.5
1110am 974 Brewers run line -1.5
1210pm 1976 Rockies first 5 innings
407pm 1982 Toronto first 5 innings

Silver to win $60

1240pm 1955 Pirates first 5 innings
920am 1952 Braves first 5 innings
410pm 968 Over 9.5 on Tigers

Two team parlays bet $50

910am 964 Tampa Bay -227
1110am 974 Brewers -175

1210pm 1976 Rockies first 5 innings
407pm 1982 Toronto first 5 innings

Round Robin 2's and a 3 at $10 a way for $40

1240pm 1955 Pirates first 5 innings
920am 1952 Braves first 5 innings
410pm 968 Over 9.5 on Tigers

 

[BuzzKill]

3 Rivers Sports

MLB
C* #956 Arizona -134 (Bumgarner)

 

[BuzzKill]

Insider Sports Report
D* Kansas City (Keller)/Milwaukee (Lauer) UNDER 9.5
Range: 10 to 9
C* Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -110 over St. Louis (Wainwright)
Range: +115 to -130
C* San Francisco (Webb) +1.5 runs -130 over L.A. Dodgers (Urias)
Range: -115 to -155

National Sports Service
D* N.Y. Mets (Stroman) -135 over Cincinnati (Hoffman)
C* Chicago White Sox (Cease) -140 over Minnesota (Pineda)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) -110 over St. Louis (Wainwright)
C Unit --> Houston (McCullers) -1.5 runs -130 over Cleveland (Morgan)

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Chicago White Sox (Cease) -140 over Minnesota (Pineda)
C★ Milwaukee (Lauer) -165 over Kansas City (Keller)

 

[BuzzKill]

Dave Essler

Triple dime- wash/Mia O8.5 fedde/Holloway
Double dime- min/cws o9 cease/pineda

 

[BuzzKill]

Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK
KANSAS CITY @ MILWAUKEE | 07/21 | 2:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -160
ANALYSIS: I see no reason to wait until early Wednesday to make this wager after KC burned me Tuesday. Looks to be a fairly lopsided pitching matchup with Kansas City's Brad Keller (6-9, 5.97) opposed by Milwaukee lefty Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.83). Keller has been a bit better away yet still allowing batters to hit .313 off him on the road. Lauer has allowed just two runs and 11 hits over 18.1 innings in his past three. He loves day games with a 2-0 record and 1.86 ERA. The Royals are not great vs. lefties, Tuesday's upset against mediocre Brett Anderson aside.

N.Y. METS @ CINCINNATI | 07/21 | 12:35 PM EDT
CINCINNATI +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Mets appear to have the edge at pitcher with Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.79). He hasn't allowed more than three earned since May 16. Then again, he hasn't won a game since June 12 and is a bit worse on the road and during the day. New York also is resting JD Davis and James McCann. Cincy's Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61) is being activated off the injured list and will start in the bigs for the first time since May 26. He is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA this year at home and was quite good in his rehab starts. I probably lean New York to win but getting the home Reds on the RL (-128) at a shorter price than Mets ML (-135) makes that better value.

SEATTLE @ COLORADO | 07/21 | 3:10 PM EDT
UNDER 11.5
ANALYSIS: It appears the wind will be blowing slightly in from right to left at Coors Field this afternoon. Rockies pitcher Austin Gomber (6-5, 3.48) has a 1.48 ERA at home. The Mariners will use an opener before turning to Chris Flexen, who has a 1.77 ERA over his past seven outings. The Under is 10-1 in Colorado's past 11 at home as the team's pitching staff has really improved.

 

[BuzzKill]

Justin Perri

CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 07/21 | 8:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -121
ANALYSIS: The Cubs scored six runs in the top of the ninth on Tuesday, which is one fewer than the output from their previous two games combined. This offense just cannot get it going, and I expect that continues on the road against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright. The veteran has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home compared to 5.35 and 1.29 on the road. He blanked the Cubs over eight innings at home in May, and I expect similar results on Wednesday. Back the Cardinals and make sure to list Wainwright on your ticket.

KANSAS CITY @ MILWAUKEE | 07/21 | 2:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee LHP Eric Lauer actually is going to start, and taking the run line means your bet should automatically be voided if he doesn’t. I had mentioned that Lauer has been pitching decently and Royals RHP Brad Keller has a 1.84 WHIP on the road. Sure, Keller has been solid in his last two outings (14 IP, four ER, six BB, 16 K), but those starts were against Cleveland and Minnesota, who both are below average in wOBA over the last month. The Brewers are seventh in wOBA over the same span and should be out to avenge Tuesday's loss. I’ll take Milwaukee -1.5 runs at +105.

N.Y. METS @ CINCINNATI | 07/21 | 12:35 PM EDT
UNDER 10.5
ANALYSIS: Reds RHP Jeff Hoffman is likely excited about Wednesday's game, given that it falls perfectly into his preferred splits. He is better at home, better during the day and has maybe the craziest platoon splits I've ever seen. He has a 0.89 ERA against left-handed batters and an 8.27 ERA versus righties. Lucky for us, and Hoffman, the Mets normally only have Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis and James McCann hitting from that side of the plate. Opposing him is RHP Marcus Stroman, who has been consistent and hasn’t allowed more than three runs since mid-May.

SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 07/21 | 10:10 PM EDT
OVER 8
ANALYSIS: This number seems too low for a team like the Dodgers, who have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. The Giants also have been hitting decently as of late. Add in that Logan Webb has a 4.76 road ERA compared to a stellar 1.64 ERA at home, and I think we have a line that likely closes at 8.5. Grab it now if you can as I only like it at 8.

 

[BuzzKill]

Rocky Atkinson

Game: (971) Minnesota Twins at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 21 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Chicago White Sox -137 M Pineda (RHP), D Cease (RHP) Must Start
Minnesota @ Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM EST)
Play On: 4* Chicago White Sox -135 (Pineda/Cease) Listed
The Minnesota Twins take on the White Sox in Chicago on Wednesday night. Minnesota is 40-55 SU overall this year while Chicago White Sox comes in with a 58-37 SU overall record on the season. Michael Pineda is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season and 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA his last 3 starts. Dylan Cease is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA at home this year. Minnesota is allowing 5.7 runs per game at night this year. Chicago White Sox is 32-16 against division opponents this year scoring 5.6 runs per game. Chicago White Sox are 12-3 overall vs Minnesota this year including 8-1 at home. Chicago White Sox are 40-13 last 3 years and 19-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -175. We'll play the Chicago White Sox for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[BuzzKill]

Sportsline Computer

MLB
Tampa Bay -219

 

[BuzzKill]

Elite Sports Picks

Boston (Houck) +1.5 runs -120 over Toronto (Ray)

 

[Rodney1974]

Wise guy team

Brewers RL
Cardinals ML